Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling itself from the stock market and aligning itself more closely with gold – experts see this as a possible shift towards a safe asset class

In recent weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has clearly decoupled itself from the US stock markets, particularly the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. This has reignited discussions about whether Bitcoin is finally assuming its long-predicted role as the digital equivalent of gold, a safe-haven asset.

According to a recent analysis by research firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has fallen from a high of 0.88 at the end of 2024 to 0.77 currently. Similarly, the correlation with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell from a peak of 0.91 in January 2025 to 0.83 currently. Experts interpret this trend as a sign that investors increasingly view Bitcoin as a safe haven compared to traditional stocks.

The reasons for this development lie in particular in increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. For example, Bitcoin has seen a price increase of around 25% since the beginning of the year, while the Nasdaq lost almost 10% over the same period. The separation between the markets became particularly clear after Donald Trump announced massive tariffs in early April, which weighed heavily on technology stocks. During this period, Bitcoin gained around 25%, while the Nasdaq stagnated.

Tracy Jin, Chief Operating Officer of the crypto exchange MEXC, sees several factors accelerating Bitcoin’s growing appeal as an alternative investment. These include the decline of the US dollar index (DIY), the unclear signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and uncertainties in international trade policy.

Similar to gold, whose price has risen by around 26% since the beginning of the year to a record high of over $3,500 per ounce, Bitcoin is currently showing growing independence from traditional financial markets. The negative correlation with gold has also decreased from -0.62 at the beginning of April to currently -0.31. Although this still indicates a weak correlation, it represents a significant step towards a closer link with gold.

Institutional investors are driving this development. On 22 April alone, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of around USD 936 million – the third-highest inflows this year. Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, a total of over USD 39 billion has already flowed into this asset class.

Nevertheless, it is still too early to conclusively assess whether Bitcoin will be accepted as digital gold in the long term. Past experience shows that Bitcoin continues to react more riskily than gold in periods of extreme market volatility. However, there are many indications that Bitcoin is increasingly establishing itself as a distinct asset class and that its appeal as a hedge against macroeconomic risks is growing.